391 shares share tweet sms send email (Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA TODAY Sports) In recent years,  has been one of the more tantalizing risks in fantasy baseball. The Los Angeles Dodgers made him someone else’s “real baseball” problem, for a package headlined by catcher . — . Since his monster near-40-40 season in 2011, Kemp has lost games and skills due to shoulder, ankle and thigh injuries (maybe Rihanna, too). But he showed flashes of his formerly elite self over the final two months of 2014, especially in September (.322 average, 9 homers, 25 RBI). Per , Dodger Stadium has been surprisingly homer-friendly given its neutral-to-hurtful reputation for hitters. Petco Park has a much tougher reputation, especially for righties. Still, Kemp has thrived in a less favorable environment before and could again, especially if he’s over his health woes. The Petco factor might not be so bad: Matt Kemp hit 25 HRs in '14 with an avg. true distance of 402.2 ft. Here are those HRs with an overlay ofPetco Park: — TheFantasyFix.com (@TheFantasyFix) Beware There are some giant caveats. The first: His new surrounding lineup, which, if it stays in its boring incarnation on paper, must overperform significantly for Kemp to reach his full fantasy potential — with the likely detriment to his RBI and run totals (think  going to Seattle last year). And even with his revival at the dish, Kemp didn’t regain the stolen base potential that once ranked him among the top outfielders. At age 30, he’ll have to work to bring it back — not impossible, but hardly a sure bet, especially since this Pads club may not run much again. Plus, there’s always the palpable risk of him adding to his resume of health issues. — . Fantasy baseball takeaway There’s less incentive to take the Round 2 plunge on Kemp in a mixed league, but you could use his new uniform to your advantage. The more your opponents let him fall, the more profitable he becomes. He boasts the innate skills to overcome flaws and become aprofitable selection. He shouldn’t fall any farther than Round 5 of a 12-teamer; it’s logical to start considering him as a boom-or-bust pick in Round 3. In a typical mixed auction with a $260 cap, don’t hesitate to spend around $20, but you’re pushing it the further it climbs above that. As the fantasy axiom says: “Once a player displays a skill, he owns it.” The faint hope of him returning to that magical 2011 still flickers, even with this pitcher haven as a home park. Knee-jerk projection (based on about 550 AB): .260 BA, 24 HR, 70 R, 80 RBI, 8 SB FantasyScore daily fantasy baseball is coming in 2015. In the meantime, sign up for football, basketball and hockey. , , , , ,   391 shares share tweet sms send email Related News